Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 04/11/2023

#Vectors of the Day The market background is positive. The US and Europe are growing slightly, the commodity market is growing for the most part (except for gas). More than 1.5% adds nickel. Events that will affect the markets: Sberbank’s profit for the 1st quarter of 2023 amounted to 350.2 billion rubles, which is more than for the entire last year. But you should be careful – it looks like a good report is already in price, and Sberbank may end the day with a correction. ????Sweden is not yet ready to join NATO, said Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu. From the Russian side, it does not matter, because Finland is already in NATO, with which the Russian Federation has a huge common border. ????President of Belarus Lukashenko told Russian Defense Minister Shoigu that Minsk needs guarantees to protect Belarus from Russia as its own territory in the event of external aggression. Where did the attack on Belarus come from? ????Electronic alerts and traditional agendas from the military registration and enlistment offices will have equal legal force – the head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Kartapolov. Legislation is likely to be formed today. If a new mobilization begins, the agendas can also be sent electronically. ????Covid is over in the USA. Biden canceled the state of emergency, introduced more than 3 years ago due to the pandemic. ????A Saudi delegation arrived in Tehran on Saturday to plan the reopening of the kingdom’s embassy in the Iranian capital. Middle East thaw. ????When a stress scenario is implemented in the country, as with banks in the United States, the Bank of Russia is ready to support banks with liquidity. VTB – already stressed or not yet? ????Mosbirzha will launch a platform for over-the-counter trading in shares without a listing. ????Belgian regulators have considered only 300 asset release applications out of thousands. Which is not surprising, because they earn a lot of money from interest. Checks are carried out carefully, only eight people work – everything so that the process stretches for decades, but formally goes on. ????RUSAL plants in the 1st quarter of 2023 reduced aluminum exports by 13% y/y, to 644 thousand tons. Today: ????Abrau Durso summarizes the results of 2022. @nebrexnya

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The economy could not, but the legislative machine was immediately rearranged on a war footing. Instead of public discussions on a grand scale, disputes, objections and amendments, the necessary laws are adopted instantly. Announced the delivery of subpoenas in electronic form yesterday. Already today, apparently, the law will be adopted immediately in all the necessary readings. And the president will sign it either today or tomorrow. Such is the rapidly changing world today. And of course, the total digitalization of conscription has nothing to do with mobilization. It seems that someone decided that the Moscow Exchange index is growing too vigorously, and it’s time to drop it again, like on September 21. @nebrexnya

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The market for BNPL services (Buy now pay later, payment in installments) amounted to only 0.8% of the volume of e-commerce in Russia in 2022, Frank RG calculated. Polls confirm this: only 6% of respondents used BNPL at least once for a purchase, and not while experiencing financial need, but purely out of interest or for the idea of ​​paying in installments. This means that the product for the Russian market is still new. It is the target audience that should be attributed to its strengths: among those who used or plan to use payment in installments, medium and high-income groups of citizens predominate. And this is good news, because according to the Central Bank, the debt burden of households is shifted to the low-income group. And they just show less interest in the BNPL. So far, this tool remains a niche non-banking fintech story for active online shoppers with average or above average income. And in the next two years, experts do not expect noticeable growth: no more than 1.8% of the volume of e-com by 2024, that is, only 1pp over the next two years. @nebrexnya

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A court in Moscow arrested the former head of the flight operation department of the Federal Air Transport Agency for a bribe. The Dorogomilovsky Court of Moscow sent the former head of the flight operation of the Federal Air Transport Agency, Maxim Kostylev, who is accused of taking a bribe, into custody. Representatives of the court reported that Kostylev would remain under arrest in a pre-trial detention center for two months, that is, until June 11, 2023. In January, it was reported that the top managers of the airline in July 2021 issued a ticket to a premium hotel in Turkey to one of their high-ranking employees of the Federal Air Transport Agency. The ticket was issued at a reduced cost of 4.7 million rubles to the Lujo Hotel Bodrum. This hotel belonged to the chairman of the airline’s supervisory board. In exchange, Kostylev allegedly influenced the results of the inspection of the flight work of Azur Air by the Federal Air Transport Agency, during which a limited number of violations were revealed.

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#NebrekhnyaLearned Sobyanin was going to the bunker The Moscow City Hall filed a lawsuit against the Izmailovo Sports and Recreation Enterprise, #Nebrekhnya found out. Details of the claim were not disclosed. This is the only part of the news that does not make the eyes twitch, the rest of the facts are more beautiful than one another. FOP “Izmailovo” is not quite a FOP at all. He owns the Izmailovo stadium, which was built in the 30s of the 20th century to hide a reserve command post of the Red Army. Simply put, the stadium is the entrance to Stalin’s bunker. The owners of the Izmailovo stadium found the bunker, restored it, made a page on the Internet, and even began to take tourists there like a museum. But the museum occupied only a small part of the dungeons. And in the rest, an underground, literally, sewing workshop worked. In 2018, it turned out that an army of illegal migrants was working there. It is even more interesting that FOP Izmailovo belongs to the Cypriot offshore Biolink Trading Limited. The offshore itself belonged to citizens of the Russian Federation and Israel Nizami Yusubov and Khudadat Rubinov, as well as a citizen of Syria Alaa Kassado. In 2018, criminal cases were opened against them, but Kassado managed to escape to Damascus. Zagogulin, as the classic used to say. In Stalin’s bunker, citizens of Israel and Syria sewed counterfeit products through the Cypriot offshore using the labor of illegal migrants, hiding behind the Izmailovo stadium, which in turn covered the entrance to Stalin’s bunker. The only question is, what did Sobyanin need four years later? The mayor decided to get his own bunker? @nebrexnya

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@nebrexnya experts specially for @kremlin_mother_expert 5 world economic news that will have consequences: ???? Global food prices fell by 20.5% over the year. Moreover, the rate of decline has accelerated in the last month and is now at its lowest level since July 2021. This can slow down global inflation, and at the same time shows the effectiveness of the grain deal: the crop goes to the world market and makes food cheaper on the whole planet. ??????? Germany will stop the last three nuclear power plants at the end of the week. By 2030, the country intends to increase the share of renewable energy to 80%. German Economics Minister Robert Habeck said that the new construction of nuclear power plants has always been seen as an economic fiasco – whether in France, the UK or Finland. Perhaps Rosatom would argue with such a statement. It is not clear what is more in it – economics or politics. ???? The container crisis that arose during the pandemic has ended. This is another factor that will reduce global inflation. In 2020, due to the disruption of global supply chains, the cost of container shipping has skyrocketed. But over the past year it has fallen by about 80%, to pre-pandemic levels. ??????? The volume of bank lending in the US fell by $105 billion in the second half of March. The most vulnerable banks could lose about $1 trillion in deposits. The trigger was the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and the Fed’s policy is making credit less accessible to consumers. The figures are not yet catastrophic, but threatening. ??????? Türkiye is rewriting its legislation to fit Russia’s proposed gas hub project. It is expected that the country will be able to re-export about 40 billion cubic meters through the terminals. Turkey itself consumes 50-60 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and plans to import up to 100 billion cubic meters.

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#There is an Opinion Financial analyst, Ph.D. in Economics Mark Goykhman, especially for #Nebrekhni – about the policy of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance in relation to the ruble: The position of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance in this case is described by two sayings: “There is no silver lining” and “The lesser of two evils is chosen” . A sharp depreciation of the ruble is, of course, “bad” and “evil”. It creates tension and disorientation in the markets, uncertainty for businesses, and subsequent inflation. But, on the other hand, there are opposite consequences. Rising exchange rates against the ruble is the easiest way to increase the income of exporters, replenish the deficit state budget, increase revenue in the economy as a whole and support GDP. And in crisis conditions, negative effects were recognized as a lesser evil and even “good”. In addition, the Central Bank adheres to the principle of non-interference, if possible, in market processes, if it does not lead to too negative consequences. The regulator considered here it possible not to distort the natural exchange rate, and not to “burn” the reserves. @nebrexnya

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An independent media with its own opinion and view of what is happening? Nowadays, this sounds a bit naive. Unfortunately, the best times of Telegram are over and now almost all channels are in a “network”, where, according to someone’s decree, they write something, and more often they simply remain silent. “Our Regnum” is the channel where the false tentacles of the “nets” have not reached. Here they are not afraid to speak on taboo topics and comment on “difficult decisions”. The grain deal, Medvedchuk’s statements, the shortage of shells – we say whatever we think about it. ????

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Airlines want money. Again. The carriers turned to the Ministry of Transport with a request to provide state support measures. More precisely, three measures: ????To extend compensation for the moral suffering of SSJ 100 operators to those who, out of desperation, change to non-existent Tu-214s. ????Co-finance the replacement of SSJ 100 engines from Russian-French SaM146s, which are no longer in service, with domestically produced PD-8s. Also non-existent. It is even more strange that in December 2022 Denis Manturov literally said the following: “We did not initially allocate budgetary resources to carry out design work and certify these engines (PD-8) for the old Superjet.” Because installing new engines is incredibly expensive, comparable to the residual value of the aircraft. ????Abolish the requirement to provide bank and state guarantees for the purchase and leasing of new aircraft. This year, the state is unlikely to allocate subsidies just as briskly, because it frankly overdid it in the past. At the end of 2022, the low-cost carrier Pobeda managed to earn 15 billion rubles, which is a record for the entire time of the company’s existence. And this is despite the loss of almost 19% of passenger traffic. The second time such a number may not work. @nebrexnya

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Privatization will not save Kostin. He was saved and will be saved again by the taxpayers, who gave him 300 billion rubles so that the state bank VTB does not die. So the reasoning of a manager who actually ruined a huge state structure looks strange. If the same VTB is privatized, the quality of management is unlikely to change there, but they will obviously be less willing to pour money into it. Why did Kostin need a new privatization, and whether he would be remembered with a strong word for the rest of his life as Chubais, was sorted out by #Nebrehnya. @nebrexnya